If oil prices head above $100 a barrel, it could reduce global growth as much as 0.2 percentage points next year, according to the report. However, this outcome is largely dependent on the performance of the dollar.
A stronger dollar would ultimately work to “polarize outcomes further,” with oil importers suffering more and producers benefiting. On the flipside, a weaker dollar would “play the role of equalizer,” said economists Ethan Harris and Aditya Bhave.
“Higher oil prices seem inevitable, and in our view, $100 per barrel is easily within reach,” wrote the economists. “We would put an oil shock in the top three of our concerns over the next year along with trade wars and the ‘exit-sential’ risks in Europe.”
The E.U., U.K. and Japan would be affected most by higher prices. However, the report indicates that increased energy production in the U.S., Australia and Brazil could reduce the negative effects on the world’s economy.
The price of Brent is currently at $83.94 per barrel, up more than 25% this year, while the dollar spot index is up around 3% over the same period.