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After more than 3 years in development, Augur (REP) took the crypto community by storm last summer when it launched its peer-to-peer prediction markets on the Ethereum (ETH) blockchain. However, the excitement quickly dropped off as adoption failed to materialize.

While Augur has yet to live up to the hype, Hodl Hodl, a peer-to-peer crypto exchange, plans to bring prediction markets to the Bitcoin (BTC) blockchain.


According to a recent announcement, Hodl Hodl’s new prediction product will leverage a unique scheme where funds are locked in multisig 2-out-of-3 escrows, where neither party has the ability to return the coins locked in escrow unilaterally.

Hodl Hodl emphasizes that it will never have direct access to the funds and users can create contracts based on many different events, including election outcomes, the price of oil, and of course, Bitcoin price predictions. However, the exchange will engage in limited moderation, including blocking any contract conditions that are illegal or too ambiguous.

“We especially want to point out that this is not gambling: gambling is generally an activity that involves instant gratification expectation, fast execution and randomness,” said the Hodl Hodl team. “Prediction market we’re working on is nothing like that: it emphasizes low-time preference, financial planning and responsibility. And of course, the bitcoins are locked in multisig-escrow, which is orders of magnitude safer than keeping money on centralized exchanges.”

Hodl Hodl is also focused on offering users the ability to make unique market terms, like allowing one user to wager 1 BTC against another user’s 10 BTC. According to the announcement, the team is targeting a Spring release for the new prediction functionality.

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Photo: Marco Verch / Flickr

Disclaimer: This article’s author has cryptocurrency holdings that can be tracked here. This article is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investments.

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